A violent face-off between the Islamic Courts from Mogadishu and the warlords in Baidao is inevitable. Forces loyal to the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) have surrounded the illegitimate weak Somali government in Baidao. The Courts are on their “expansionist” move and people are predicting once they set foot in Baidao, they will drive the remaining warlords in the weak government out. The Islamic Courts also gave a final ultimatum to the Ethiopians to leave Somalia within seven days or else pay a heavy price for their illegal invasion.
These threatening developments made the amateurish prime minister of the weak Somali government, Ali Mohamed Ghedi, cry to his international and regional benefactors.
The Somali conflict has been crying out for international action to resolve it for long time. But the world, in the name of the United Nations, under the influence of the failing neo-cons of Bush and Bolton, decided to make matters worse when they, once more, supported a losing and unpopular side in the Somali conflict. And all signs and speculations about the Security Council resolution of sending peacekeeping forces into chaotic Somalia and partially lifting of the arms embargo to embolden the weak transitional federal government (TFG) points to a total cataclysm. The haste UN verdict had definitely done what it was supposed to do: make things worse for suffering Somalis, for the weak TFG and for the region. It would spiral more violence and would not only send Somalia back to serious second civil war but could create a disastrous regional catastrophe.The latest American-sponsored mishap at the UN to support a weak and unpopular government in Somalia had definitely incensed many who taught maybe the Americans have learnt something from the Iraqi debacle.
The American policy-makers had done this flawed decision before when they bankrolled Mogadishu warlords all in the name of fighting fictional terrorists in Somalia. And it was surely this mistake that propelled the Islamic Courts into becoming the real deal in Somalia and the heroic saviors of the suffering Somali people. Instead of learning from their past lapse and slip of judgment, the Americans with the United Nations are repeating the same erroneous course of action. The neo-con oversight in sponsoring the UN resolution emulates the Iraqi stay-the-course- bungle.
And this second American misstep is actually making stronger the very Islamists they were trying to route out. More and more Somalis are pledging their unconditional support to the Islamic Courts. Why? Somalis see the Islamic Courts as the only hope to get their country and dignity back. The Islamic Courts brought peace and stability to all places under their control. They brought warlord thuggery and terror to an end. Every city they expand their power to, welcomes them as liberators. People are happy to see the marauding and undisciplined militias of the warlords, who raped women, killed innocent people, set up extortionist checkpoints in every road, expelled for good. Furthermore, the Islamic courts provide social services by setting up clinics and schools. Who doesn’t want that?
And where does the United Nations fit in this picture? Nowhere! The UN and the US deserted the poor Somalis longtime ago at the hands of cruel warlords. Then, in 2004, The UN or the International Community, call it whatever, fashioned an IGAD sponsored façade christened Transitional Federal Government for Somalia. This was in fact seen a government of warlords for the warlords by the warlords by majority of Somalis.And now that the Islamic Courts stood up to this façade, the US, UN and International Community are coming back to make life harder for the Somalis by supporting unpopular government. That is not faring well with Somalis. Instead, people are in large numbers welcoming the success of the Islamic Courts. Thousands of young and able Somali men are voluntarily joining in the ranks and file of the Islamic forces. While the Militias of the warlords and the weak TFG are in large numbers going AWOL and deserting their camps. The only protection of the TFG rests with the invading Ethiopian forces in Baidao.
The Ethiopian protection of the TFG and its invasion into Somalia complicated things.
Ethiopia has always been friends with the ruthless warlords. They financed and armed them.
Ethiopia’s main objective in backing the warlords is known to Somalis. For its selfish national interest, landlocked Ethiopia wants to have weak Somali fiefdoms ruled by thuggish warlords to have an access to Somali ports. It also colonizes the Somali inhibited region of Ogaden and oppresses its six million indigenous Somali people just like it oppresses the indigenous Oromo community who make up half of Ethiopia’s population. Add this to the fact that more than half of the Ethiopian people are Muslims who feel marginalized and deprived of real power. The West misleadingly props up Ethiopia as a Christian island in the midst of turbulent Islamic ocean. The Muslim Oromos and the Somalis in Ethiopia traditionally sought help from their brothers in faith to the East. For this, Ethiopia had two costly border wars with Somalia. Most Ethiopians can’t stand seeing their proud and never-colonized nation disintegrating like Somalia and the shrewd Ethiopian dictator, Meles Zenawi is determined to not allow an Abyssinian crumbling. If Somalia becomes stable and sets up a strong functioning government,
Ethiopia fears it will back Oromo and Ogadeni insurgency. What is better to crush the only entity that can unite the Somalis and set up an independent Somalia, which is now the Islamic Courts, in their formative years, than dealing with them later when they become stronger? So goes Meles’ rationale of opposing the nascent Islamic threat in the neighborhood. Meles is also following the footsteps of his mentors, Bush and Blair to fight the Islamists in their own turf.
It is obvious that within the coming days an all-out war will explode in this poor region of Africa. Some may ask why this war would be different since wars and famines have been everyday phenomena in Horn of Africa. Well, this one might encompass the whole region with both deadly unfamiliar and humanitarian consequences: Suicide bombings, insurgency and terror spill-over might become daily realities not only in Baidao but in places like Nairobi and Addis. And this could make the Horn of Africa look like the Middle East.
No one is sure what the final outcome of this eminent war would be. There is no doubt that the ICU could defeat the weak TFG in a matter of days, but can they overcome the Ethiopian military muscle? Would the Ethiopians occupation forces able to overwhelm the ICU insurgency? This definitely sounds like Iraq and we all know the dreadful tragedy that is going on there. In all probability, things will get worse and we may have to prepare ourselves for Somali Study group spearheaded by Kofi Anan in the place of James Baker.
